When I look at Georgia, I’m very pessimistic…our line should be that if we don’t do something, it will cost us. We are about to lose a partner – Petras Auštrevičius tells Radio Free Europe’s Georgian Service. We sat down with him to speak about the root of that pessimism, drawing on the Belarus example, the standoff between Brussels and Tbilisi, and asking just how much EU support he thinks Georgia can expect.
Today’s developments in Georgia are very often compared to what transpired in Belarus in 2020. Do you think the comparison is apt? Should we expect a similar outcome?
I don’t know which way things will play out in Georgia, maybe not exactly the same way as they did in Belarus. But for Russia, any country that wants to go towards Europe is unacceptable, and they are looking for every opportunity to make them change course and present it as if the country has failed, so it had “better come back to Mother Russia.” Georgia, compared to Belarus, is more dynamic; they’ve got the experience, the taste of democracy, and are better connected internationally. But still, when I look at Georgia, I’m very pessimistic. They have a plan, that many in Brussels are unaware of, and this plan wasn’t drawn in Tbilisi, believe me; it was drawn up a bit further north. The strategy is to lead Georgia away from the European path.
If we were to look at the regime’s approach both in Belarus and in Georgia, what do you think the core similarities and differences are?
In Belarus, we have a completely authoritarian regime, which is setting its country up for integration into Russia. But it’s not entirely their choice; they aren’t in control, they just swim downstream. As for Georgia, the Georgian Dream think they are so smart, so secure, that they can play the game of being in two places at the same time. “With Europe, let’s be partners, mainly in matters of trade, because we like the money. But on policy, we want to be the way we want,” which, at the moment, happens to be an increasingly authoritarian regime.
As far as authoritarian leaders go, who’s doing a “better” job- Lukashenko or Georgian Dream?
Look, these guys have been in power for how long now, 12 years? They are only 12 years old. Lukashenko has been doing it for 31 years. He consolidated power. He exterminated all opposition. He took over Belarus. He is really a chairman of “Kolkhoz”, to use the soviet term. He wakes up in the morning, goes out into the fields, points fingers here and there, orders you to do this and that. That’s his style. In Georgia, I think it’s a bit different. They are the semi-Kolkhoz, Kolkhoz-like people dressed up in suits, with semi-market economy principles and so on. But it’s all about window dressing. The common feature for both Belarus and Georgia is that if you do a deal with the devil, especially with the devil that sits in the Kremlin, then there is no way out, and the devil gets to decide what your future looks like.
In Belarus, the one thing that tilted the balance in Lukashenko’s favor were the Russian soldiers, arriving in Russian tanks, holding Russian rifles. How realistic would the same scenario be for Georgia?
I don’t think Russians need tanks on the streets of Tbilisi; they want good, loyal masters locally, following their demands. A bit of a historical retrospective: in the 19th century, when Georgia was fully annexed by the Russian Empire, the elites were reintegrated into the Russian nobility; they were given respect, career possibilities, and so on. That repeat of history will most likely be seen in Georgia, I’m afraid.
What you think the core motivation of the ruling party and Ivanishvili is? Is it favors for the Kremlin or being terrified of what happens if they don’t- a “polonium tea” scenario?
Whatever it is, those at the top are being controlled – whether it’s fear, money, past records or all three combined, we don’t know yet. It’s a bit more complicated than just saying it’s because of fear, or just money – that would be too simplistic a reading.
What should one expect from the EU when it comes to this standoff between Brussels and Tbilisi? The EP refused to recognize Georgian Dream’s legitimacy. What’s next? Do you expect any other international bodies to follow suit?
I’m looking forward to a consolidated EU position. I’m not sure we have such a position in the council yet. I am very optimistic about the Polish presidency in this regard. I hope it will prevail, but it’s not a given. First, we have to consolidate and have one clear position among the European Union institutions.
How long do you think that’s going to take?
It will take time. Another part of the question is about what the ruling party in Georgia will do in the meantime. I think they will try to pretend as if nothing happened. They’ll say “we are still your partners,” shake any western hand that’s offered to them; say, “let’s not fight, sure, things aren’t ideal, but let’s talk.” I expect Georgian Dream representatives to come to the EU institutions, even to the European Parliament.
In what capacity?
Well, they aren’t banned from entering the building. If someone from among the MEPs were to issue them clearance, they could come in. There will be no official invitation, sure, but once you’ve met them in the corridors, pictures are taken, they can then claim things are “being done.”
With more than 750 of your colleagues in this building, how many of them do you think would be tempted to play that game?
You don’t need many. You only need a dozen or so. There are already some MEPs that the pro-government media talks to, sending messages that even though some are unhappy about Georgian Dream in Georgia, there are happy ones as well. They suggest they are generally accepted, that nothing has really happened, that everything’s normal and under control.
And what are you – those who don’t share that view – going to do about it?
My expectation is full implementation of this policy line, from the External Action Service, from the Commission, and as much as possible from the Member States. We will not get everybody onboard, but the line should be that if we don’t do something, it will cost us – We are about to lose a partner. Are we ready to lose a candidate country in such an easy way? Because we didn’t have a battle yet for a soul of Georgia. We didn’t fight yet. We just expressed some concerns, condemned things. I hope that the new EU leadership is a bit more serious and understanding of geopolitical consequences a bit better. So we cannot allow this daylight robbery. If you just let it happen, if you don’t fight back, what’s the message you are sending? That you abandon your partners, and do so with ease.
Interview by Vazha Tavberidze
