The South Caucasus, also known as Transcaucasia, is a complex juncture of strategic corridors, energy resources, and historical ties with the rest of the world, attracting the attention of the world’s most dominant powers, such as Russia, the United States, and China. Each of these significant international players has their own interests, attitudes, and tools to deal with the region, which could be seen as one of the symptoms of the return to a multipolar world: Russia will always find it unacceptable to loosen its influence over its neighbor, Transcaucasia, over which it held power for centuries; the United States, geographically as distant as it is from South Caucasus, thinks that the place is a convenient location for proliferating democratic ideals and instruments of governance; while China is promoting its infrastructural projects and trade prospects, aiming to involve the South Caucasus in its wider Eurasian scope.
It’s no surprise then that, in the emerging multipolar world, each of these players will operate based on their own strategic concepts, continuing or beginning to shape the future of Transcaucasian sovereignty and how it should behave in the international arena.
For Georgia, the emerging multipolar world may come with significant compromises: there’s no question that foreign engagement brings economic opportunities, investments, and access to international platforms. However, it is also accompanied by obvious risks that could increase Georgia’s dependence on major powers, potentially undermining its sovereignty to a certain extent.
In the emerging geopolitical configuration of returning multipolarity, Georgia appears to be acquiring a role that could serve its newly-born political targets and commercial prospects. Considering that Georgia is still viewed as an aspiring member of the European Union, it vigorously continues to promote its sovereignty both at the national level and internationally, while facing significant pressure from Russia. Meanwhile, the healthiest and most practical relationship with the European Union offers a chance for deeper trade and political ties with advanced economies, which might explain its disagreements with Russia.
Now, the question is whether the presence and forceful activity of major powers in the region can be seen as a benefit or a detriment. There is no simple, unequivocal answer to this question, but no one will doubt that partnerships with foreign players can provide resources, technology, and updated knowledge. At the same time, however, there is a danger that over-dependence could lead to a loss of formal autonomy. This is precisely what the current Georgian government seeks to avoid, yet it must keep the country in good shape. It is definitely not easy to drive this idea home, whether to our own people or to the European powers that be.
China, as one of the leading powers in the reinstated global multipolarity, is ready to make significant infrastructural investments in Georgia, creating tremendous potential to improve the country’s economic conditions. However, these investments often come with long-term debt obligations. Similarly, while American support has strengthened Georgia’s democratic institutions, it has also brought political tensions within the region, with polarized forms that have sparked numerous precarious clashes in Georgian society. Meanwhile, Russian dominance remains a complicating factor, making the situation even more complex. Georgia’s current political stance carries the potential for conflict with Russia’s intimidating tactics, which aim at securing its long-term presence in Transcaucasia, particularly in Georgia.
Finally, to be more specific, here is a set of steps Sakartvelo should take to embrace the new era of multipolarity: expand and further develop institutional reforms to demonstrate its commitment to European values; diversify interactions with the external world by intensively cooperating with both Western allies and regional partners; strongly support regional collaboration by working with Armenia and Azerbaijan to promote shared interests in trade and energy sectors; advocate for the South Caucasus region to receive greater attention on the global stage; harmonize soft power and diplomacy; and envision the future of Sakartvelo beyond military or economic strategies, through diplomacy rooted in shared cultural, historical, and economic ties.
If carefully considered, none of these steps is impossible to bring to fruition, so it makes sense to take them seriously.
OP-Ed by Nugzar B. Ruhadze
