The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Georgia’s economy remains resilient despite heightened global uncertainty, including the ongoing war in the Middle East, while forecasting continued strong economic growth and a gradual return of inflation to target levels.
The IMF Executive Board completed its 2026 Article IV Consultation with Georgia on Thursday, praising the country’s macroeconomic performance and the strengthening of its fiscal and external buffers.
Georgia’s real GDP grew by 7.5% in 2025 and remained strong in early 2026. Inflation rose to 5.9% in April 2026, exceeding the National Bank of Georgia’s target, largely due to higher energy prices.
The IMF noted that the country’s international reserves have reached its adequacy threshold, while public debt has declined to below 35% of GDP.
The Fund projects economic growth to moderate to 6.5% in 2026 before gradually slowing to 5% by 2028, which it considers Georgia’s medium-term potential growth rate. Inflation is expected to return to target by mid-2027.
“Despite elevated global uncertainty, including from the war in the Middle East, Georgia’s economy remains resilient, supported by sound macroeconomic management and strong policy buffers,” the IMF said.
The IMF expects Georgia’s public debt to remain at prudent levels throughout the forecast period, declining from 34.3% of GDP in 2025 to 31.7% by 2031. Foreign currency-denominated debt is projected to fall from 23.2% to 13.7% of GDP over the same period.
Nominal GDP is forecast to increase from GEL 104.6 billion in 2025 to GEL 179.3 billion by 2031, while GDP per capita is expected to rise from $9,700 to $17,700.
The Executive Board described the National Bank of Georgia’s recent interest rate increase as appropriate and said monetary policy should remain sufficiently tight and data-dependent to bring inflation back to target. Directors also emphasized the importance of exchange rate flexibility and continued reserve accumulation.
The IMF called for further strengthening of the governance framework of the National Bank of Georgia and continued reforms of state-owned enterprises to reduce fiscal risks.
Directors welcomed the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline, while encouraging improvements in tax administration, mining taxation, and spending efficiency.
The banking sector was described as resilient, although the IMF urged continued vigilance regarding rapid credit growth, foreign exchange exposures, non-bank financial activities, and digital assets.
The report also highlighted structural challenges, including high youth unemployment, skills mismatches, and weak work incentives. The IMF encouraged reforms in vocational education, employment services, and social assistance programs, alongside support for high-productivity sectors.
The Fund also backed continued investment in logistics, infrastructure, and trade facilitation, as well as deeper regional integration to strengthen Georgia’s competitiveness.
The next IMF Article IV Consultation with Georgia is expected to take place within the standard 12-month cycle.
