As the conflict moves into its fourth winter, the past week has been defined by two intertwined struggles: Russia’s push to break Ukrainian lines around the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, and a renewed campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy grid, while Kyiv ramps up long-range drone strikes on Russian oil and industrial facilities. From 30 October to 6 November, front lines changed little on the map, but the intensity and brutality of bombardments on both sides show how much the war now depends on logistics, electricity, and industrial capacity—not just territory.
Pokrovsk remains the focal point of fighting. Russian forces have made limited gains in parts of the city, seeking to use the urban landscape for infiltration teams and drones, while threatening the logistics that support Ukrainian positions along the Donetsk front. Moscow says its troops are tightening a “ring” around Ukrainian defenders and advancing from multiple directions, including toward nearby Kupiansk and other key transport hubs. Kyiv rejects the claim of encirclement but acknowledges that Pokrovsk has become one of the fiercest sectors of the war, after enduring more than a year of artillery, glide-bomb, and infantry attacks.
Ukraine’s response has combined symbolic acts with tactical counterstrikes. On 5 November, the 425th Separate Assault Regiment released footage of two teams infiltrating Pokrovsk at night and raising the Ukrainian flag over the city council building, claiming to have cleared Russian forces from the site. One soldier was lightly wounded when his vehicle was hit by a Russian drone but reportedly refused evacuation and continued the mission. Ukrainian military intelligence also reported a joint operation with Russian partisans that destroyed a support vehicle for an Iskander missile system in Russia’s Kursk region, targeting equipment used to reload launchers that had been firing on Ukrainian cities. Kyiv presents these operations as proof that it is still contesting control around Pokrovsk, even as Russian troops hold industrial zones and residential blocks on the city’s outskirts.
Outside Pokrovsk, Russian forces continued high-intensity shelling and air strikes across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipro, without any major publicly confirmed territorial gains. Local authorities reported repeated attacks on frontline communities, including deadly strikes in Kupiansk, Synelnykove, and other parts of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Russian forces also pressured Kherson and nearby villages along the Dnipro’s west bank, and northern regions such as Sumy and Chernihiv, keeping large areas under constant threat with drones, artillery, and missiles. Ukrainian officials claimed Russia lost about 900 troops in a single day and more than 1.14 million personnel since February 2022, highlighting the attritional nature of the fighting even where front lines seem static.
Civilian casualties reflect both long-range strikes and trench warfare. On 30 October, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks of the year, firing more than 650 drones and over 50 missiles at targets nationwide, focusing on power stations and grid infrastructure. At least six civilians died, including a seven-year-old child, and dozens were injured in cities such as Zaporizhzhia and Sloviansk. Subsequent attacks on 2 and 4 November killed at least 20 more people and injured several dozen, leaving tens of thousands without electricity. Since late October, publicly reported figures suggest at least two dozen civilians killed and over 50 injured, though the real toll in contested areas is likely higher.
The 30 October assault marked a clear escalation of Russia’s “energy war.” In addition to homes, missiles and drones struck thermal power plants and substations, forcing rolling blackouts nationwide as engineers scrambled to stabilize the grid. Ukrainian officials and analysts say Moscow aims to split the grid along the Dnipro River, isolating eastern cities from western nuclear plants and deepening hardships in frontline oblasts such as Kharkiv and Donetsk. Drone strikes also hit Odesa’s ports and energy facilities, causing fires and damaging roads and industrial buildings, while attacks in Donetsk temporarily left the entire oblast without power. Kyiv calls this “systematic energy terror” intended to break morale ahead of winter.
Ukraine has intensified long-range strikes on Russian oil, gas, and industrial sites, using domestically produced drones with growing reach. In the past week, drones reportedly hit an industrial complex in Sterlitamak in Russia’s Bashkortostan region, about 1,300–1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, partially disabling water-treatment facilities at a petrochemical plant. Other strikes targeted oil refineries and storage depots in Saratov, Yaroslavl, and Volgograd, as well as the Tuapse Black Sea refinery and port, causing operational suspensions. Ukrainian intelligence says these attacks—over 150 successful strikes on Russian oil facilities this year—are eroding Russia’s war capacity by hitting critical economic assets.
The air war has also spilled beyond Ukraine’s borders. Romania reported Russian drone and missile activity near Danube ports close to NATO territory, prompting air patrols. Across Europe, suspected Russian drone incursions have temporarily closed airports, including Brussels, raising concerns about hybrid tactics to intimidate the EU. In Moscow, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov called for preparations for possible full-scale nuclear tests, signaling resolve more than immediate military intent.
Diplomacy and Aid
This week saw renewed pledges for Ukraine alongside ongoing debates over how to end the war. Germany delivered additional Patriot air-defense systems, while preparing to increase its 2026 support by €3 billion, bringing total planned aid to €8.5 billion for artillery, drones, armored vehicles, and replenishment of its own Patriot stocks. Norway pledged $7 billion to Ukraine’s defense sector and signed agreements on joint production and participation in the Joint Expeditionary Force. These commitments signal that European support remains steady despite political uncertainties and US funding debates.
Diplomatic efforts continue but remain distant from a ceasefire. A leaked 12-point EU-Ukraine peace plan has circulated, but Kyiv has not endorsed it. EU leaders have repeatedly called for Russia to agree to an immediate ceasefire, while Moscow continues missile and drone strikes. US former President Donald Trump floated supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles and skipped the upcoming G20 summit, dampening speculation about a possible meeting with Zelensky and Putin. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama urged the EU to present its own plan rather than leaving diplomacy largely to Washington.
Compiled by Ana Dumbadze
