The past week of the war followed a grimly familiar pattern—one that feels especially punishing in the depths of winter. Along the eastern and southern fronts, Russian and Ukrainian forces continued grinding infantry battles, while far from the trenches both sides escalated long-range strikes aimed at logistics, air defenses, and, most critically, energy infrastructure. As temperatures dropped, civilian hardship rose sharply. At the same time, diplomacy and foreign aid moved forward on parallel tracks, though neither slowed the pace of fighting.
On the ground, the frontline barely shifted. Russian forces maintained steady pressure, particularly in Donetsk, where Moscow is still trying to claw out incremental gains around transport hubs and layered defensive positions. The fighting has relied less on dramatic breakthroughs and more on small assault units, heavy drone use, and persistent efforts to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. These tactics have produced localized changes but no decisive operational collapse. Western and independent analysts continue to describe the war as deeply attritional, with drones playing an outsized role—not just in strikes and surveillance, but in making casualty evacuation and resupply increasingly dangerous. Progress, when it comes, is slow and costly in both manpower and equipment.
The most consequential developments of the week came from the air. Overnight on January 12–13, Russia launched a major wave of missiles and drones across multiple regions of Ukraine, hitting both civilian sites and critical infrastructure, including power generation facilities and substations. In the Kharkiv region, a strike hit a postal terminal, killing four civilians, according to Ukrainian officials and reporting summarized by analytical monitors. Ukrainian authorities said the attack combined ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and a large drone swarm. Air defenses intercepted many of them, but not enough to prevent damage across numerous locations.
Those strikes fed directly into the week’s defining civilian story: heat and power under strain in freezing weather. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to declare a state of emergency in the energy sector, saying widespread damage required faster coordination, increased imports, and the rapid expansion of warming and charging centers. Kyiv and other cities faced rolling disruptions, and officials warned that repeated strikes—combined with subzero temperatures—were making repairs and stabilization increasingly difficult.
Energy infrastructure was not just a strategic target but a daily source of hardship. Authorities reported significant outages after strikes on regional facilities, with crews racing to restore electricity and heating while warning that systems remained vulnerable. In Kryvyi Rih, local officials described a “massive” overnight drone attack that temporarily cut power to more than 45,000 subscribers and disrupted heating for hundreds of buildings. Repairs were completed within hours, and no casualties were reported in that incident, but it underscored how fragile basic services have become.
Ukraine’s gas supply also came under scrutiny. Naftogaz leadership publicly pushed back against rumors of imminent gas restrictions, insisting that consumers would remain supplied despite repeated attacks on energy and gas-related facilities. The statement highlighted Kyiv’s reliance on imports and emergency balancing to avoid the kind of widespread household rationing that Russian strikes appear designed to trigger.
Ukraine, meanwhile, continued striking back. Kyiv maintained its campaign against Russian energy and logistics targets, aiming both to complicate Moscow’s war economy and to impose a sense of reciprocity for attacks on Ukrainian cities. In one widely reported case, a Ukrainian strike contributed to major power and water outages in Russia’s border city of Belgorod, leaving large numbers of residents without basic services in subfreezing weather. Separately, Ukrainian drone operations reportedly sparked a fire at an oil depot in Russia’s Volgograd region—part of a broader effort to hit fuel and refining infrastructure that Ukrainian officials link directly to Russia’s ability to sustain military operations.
This strike-and-counterstrike pattern continues to expand the war far beyond the trench lines. Russia’s long-range campaign increasingly blends missiles with massed drone waves designed to saturate air defenses and maximize system damage. Ukraine’s deep strikes focus on refineries, depots, and power-related sites that can create cascading economic and logistical effects. Analysts following these trends argue that Russia’s ability to deploy large numbers of relatively inexpensive drones has reshaped the battlefield, enabling sustained pressure on rear areas and making Ukrainian logistics and movement more dangerous.
Civilian casualties remain difficult to verify in real time, but the week’s toll was clearly heavy. Ukrainian officials said four civilians were killed in the Kharkiv postal terminal strike. Earlier in the week, reporting on another large Russian barrage referenced fatalities in Kyiv as power and heating systems were damaged. The broader picture is bleak: recent international monitoring cited in reporting indicates that civilian casualties from strikes increased in 2025 compared with previous years, reflecting the growing scale and destructiveness of long-range attacks.
Alongside the violence, diplomacy continued. Zelensky said a bilateral security guarantees document with the United States was nearing completion and would require approval at the highest political level. He described it as central to postwar deterrence and to sustaining confidence as Russia continues missile and drone attacks. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking in Brussels, echoed that focus, pointing to concrete discussions on robust security guarantees and signaling alignment between Europe and the US on readiness to provide them after any deal—language that suggests planning for a future settlement, even as battlefield dynamics show no sign of imminent de-escalation.
European financial and military support also took a major step forward. The European Commission outlined a proposed €90 billion support loan for 2026–2027, with roughly one-third earmarked for budget support and two-thirds for military needs. The goal is to keep Ukraine’s state functioning while funding defense procurement, reflecting Europe’s growing role in sustaining both the war effort and governmental resilience as the conflict drags into another winter.
The United Kingdom announced a significant initiative as well. Under “Project Nightfall,” London plans to develop new ground-launched ballistic missiles to strengthen Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities. The UK government said the concept targets a range beyond 500 kilometers with a substantial warhead, framing the effort as a response to continued Russian attacks and a way to bolster Ukraine’s deterrence and counterstrike options.
Compiled by Ana Dumbadze
