Interview by Vazha Tavberidze
He is one of Azerbaijan’s best-known lawyers and an outspoken human rights defender — and for decades, Aslan Ismailov has been watching Moscow’s games in the South Caucasus up close. In this wide-ranging conversation with Radio Free Europe’s Georgian Service, Ismailov argues that the sudden rift between Baku and the Kremlin was anything but sudden — instead, he says, it was the inevitable result of Moscow’s imperial reflexes colliding with a new generation of leadership in Baku. He explains why Ilham Aliyev’s defiance marks a “point of no return” for Azerbaijan’s place in Russia’s “Russkiy Mir,” why Putin’s last trump card — the Azerbaijani diaspora — is unlikely to save him this time, and why Turkey and the West stand to benefit from a tectonic geopolitical shift that could reshape the entire post-Soviet neighborhood, Georgia included.
LET’S LOOK AT THIS CHRONOLOGICALLY — WHAT STARTED IT ALL, THIS SPAT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND AZERBAIJAN?
Russian TV portrays it all as if it came out of nowhere — “look at this friendship we had, now it’s ruined” — but this was no accident. It’s been going on since the day the USSR collapsed. Back in 1993, Russia had other plans: to bring its own man to power, Mutalibov. But former president Elchibey probably did the wisest thing: he made sure Heydar Aliyev came to power, because he knew Aliyev’s capabilities, his experience. He was a true statesman.
Later there were dozens of coup attempts that came to light, but it was never publicly said that they were Russia’s doing, because the country, and Aliyev, knew Russia’s power and kept silent.
Then Putin declared the collapse of the USSR a geopolitical tragedy. Already back then it was clear: Putin’s — Putin’s Russia’s — goal was to recreate the USSR. In 2008, there was Georgia, then Crimea. Part of this strategy was to always keep Azerbaijan under Moscow’s thumb. Now Russian TV pushes this idea that Putin “helped Ilham Aliyev liberate Karabakh.” Complete nonsense. Putin di indeed stay silent, didn’t interfere — but not because he loves Azerbaijan. He was counting on the fact that when Azerbaijan liberated its land — and he knew full well Azerbaijan would manage to do so if he didn’t intervene on behalf of the Armenians — then the Armenian people would once again follow Moscow’s tune and overthrow Pashinyan. That was the idea — not to help Azerbaijan. But it didn’t work out. Pashinyan turned out to be much smarter than his predecessors. This is where Putin miscalculated. He didn’t get what he wanted.
AND THEN HE MISCALCULATES AGAIN — GOES INTO UKRAINE THINKING HE’LL TAKE IT IN THREE DAYS.
Exactly. And why did he start with Ukraine? Because he knew perfectly well that if he could capture Ukraine in three days, that was it — Central Asia and the South Caucasus would be in his pocket too. On the second day of the war, I wrote that, as of today, the Ukrainian people are fighting not only for their freedom, but for the freedom of the entire post- Soviet space. That’s undeniable.
After these events, Ilham Aliyev took a clear stance. He recognized Ukraine’s territorial integrity. He started providing material and moral support to the Ukrainian people, and did not take Russia’s side. Last year, when things were already simmering, people who were watching closely could see that Russia would make some kind of move. They shot down a passenger plane last year. That was done demonstratively. When the plane was shot down, the President made it clear: his message was that the Russian government should apologize and compensate the victims.
Nothing followed — because the “master” doesn’t talk with his servants like that. That’s how Putin sees himself. But here again, he miscalculated. He didn’t factor in Ilham Aliyev’s character. Aliyev didn’t stop there. He started demanding. Then came the May holidays, the parade — Putin invited him personally. Aliyev refused. They sent the Federation Council to Baku, Matviyenko. Then they sent Gundyaev, Kirill, an FSB guy moonlighting as Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. He still stood his ground and didn’t go. So Russia went all in. It’s only real card left is the Azerbaijani diaspora. Azerbaijanis fully provide for themselves, they don’t need anything.
AND HOW SERIOUS A LEVER IS THE AZERBAIJANI DIASPORA IN PUTIN’S HANDS? HOW MUCH DOES IT REALLY AFFECT ALIYEV’S DECISION-MAKING?
It’s their main and only real card. A very serious one. Because there are over a million of our compatriots living there. The vast majority of them are Russian citizens, not citizens of Azerbaijan — people who have been living there 20–30, 40–50 years. All the way to the Yekaterinburg raid, there have been dozens of such incidents. There’s been this animal- like treatment, savage beatings of Azerbaijanis, in previous raids, but in Yekaterinburg, it ended in death — and for the president to stay silent about that would have been disrespectful to the country. And he knew the mood of the people. So he took a firm stand.
AND IF RUSSIA SENDS A SIGNAL: “WE’LL STOP IF YOU BECOME MORE COMPLIANT.” IS THAT AN OFFER BAKU WOULD EVER CONSIDER?
He will not become more compliant. That’s not in his character. He is Heydar Aliyev’s son. He can stay silent, but being compliant is out of the question. The response will be mirror-like. The only thing I regret, and I wrote about this, is that here they arrested a Sputnik staff member, other people from agent networks. They needed to be arrested, but not the way Russia does it. I voiced my outrage about that.
YOU ARE ALLUDING TO THE OBVIOUS FACT THAT THEY WERE BEATEN?
Yes. That’s the trademark of Russian police. We should be better than that. But the agent network purge will definitely continue.
WHAT WILL THE CONSEQUENCES BE FROM THE RUSSIAN SIDE?
Our border has already been closed for over five years. It’s clear Aliyev knew that Putin could do this at any moment. Flying a million people by plane into Azerbaijan to destabilize public order — that’s absurd. Of course, there are many people in Azerbaijan who are unhappy with the authorities and their illegal actions, I admit that. But on this issue, the people stand united with the government.
The only thing is that there are a lot of influential Azerbaijanis in Russia. There are billionaires, there are powerful diaspora leaders. Now they’ll be squeezed in every possible way to use their lever- age on Azerbaijan. It’ll be something like what they pulled off in Georgia. They already have an Azerbaijani “Bidzina Ivanishvili” here. Everyone knows who he is: oligarch and billionaire Ilham Rahimov, Putin’s closest friend. Now they want to turn him into a hero — supposedly he “freed” the head of the diaspora in Yekaterinburg. Then they forced that diaspora leader to thank Rahimov. The Kremlin jailed him, then freed him itself. All of it was done to boost Rahimov’s profile. No doubt about that.
Many people are now spreading this story, suggesting that he’s some savior of the nation and so on. I know him very well. For him, his homeland is not Azerbaijan. His homeland is Russia. That was Putin’s last trump card that he kept up his sleeve for years. But that won’t work either. The only thing I’ll say again — it will be hard for our people living in Russia.
IS WHAT WE ARE WITNESSING RIGHT NOW JUST A TEMPORARY WORSENING OF RELATIONS, OR HAS IT CROSSED THE POINT OF NO RETURN — HAS AZERBAIJAN WAVED GOODBYE TO THE ‘RUSSKI MIR – RUSSIAN WORLD’ FOR GOOD?
This is already the point of no return. Going forward, naturally Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani people — I say this sincerely — the Azerbaijani people do not want to be enemies of Russia or the Russian people. We want to be a good neighbor, but without anyone’s dictate: on equal terms.
DO YOU THINK RUSSIA IS READY FOR THAT? DOES IT EVEN KNOW WHAT IT MEANS TO DEAL ON EQUAL TERMS?
The Russian government doesn’t know how, no. Putin and Putin’s Russia recognize nothing but force. Right now, the Kremlin is trying to spin what’s happening in Yekaterinburg as if it’s just the work of law enforcement, as if the Kremlin has nothing to do with it — it’s an outright lie.
IT SEEMS RUSSIA HAS NOW LOST ITS ROLE AS A MEDIATOR BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN FOR GOOD. WHAT NEW SCENARIOS DOES THAT OPEN UP FOR REGIONAL GEOPOLITICS?
That’s the key question, isn’t it? After 2020, Armenia, under Pashinyan, decided that being hostile with neighbors brings nothing good, and that they should move toward a peace deal. And we agreed to that too. I state unequivocally that the reason that to this day no peace treaty has been signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan is directly because of Russia’s interference. Just recently, Lavrov said that any agreement without Russia would worsen the situation in Armenia. In parallel, we have seen a coup attempt in Armenia — oligarch Samvel Karapetyan was brought in specifically for that coup. Etchmiadzin — that’s another Kremlin agent network, also on Russia’s side. The Kocharyan and Sargsyan forces want a coup there too, but I think if the people of Armenia back the leader they them- selves elected, it won’t succeed. So this whole “geopolitical spasm series” of Putin’s is because Azerbaijan and Armenia are about to sign a deal with each other without Russia, leaving Moscow’s control for good.
Azerbaijan and Armenia leaving means Georgia leaves automatically too. And that means the loss of the South Cauca- sus. And losing the South Caucasus down the line means losing Central Asia too. Putin understands that. So even though he has other problems, he’s pushing on this. The old man has lost his mind. He is terrified that this might end up being his legacy, instead of him being remembered as the great modern day Tsar.
AND WHAT IF GEORGIA DOESN’T WANT TO SLIP AWAY FROM RUSSIA?
In Georgia, there’s the Georgian people and the Georgian government, and these are very different things; things very much at odds with each other. If the Georgian people truly, clearly and unconditionally want the West, then the government under Bidzina Ivanishvili can’t stay in Russia’s orbit. That’s a fact. If the people support the country’s leader, not even the whole world can overthrow him. If the people want to get rid of the leader, not even the whole world can save him. The decision lies with the people of Georgia.
WILL TURKEY’S ROLE GROW EXPONENTIALLY AS A RESULT OF THIS GROWING RIFT BETWEEN BAKU AND MOSCOW?
I think the main thing here is for Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a peace deal. Both leaders need to do this immediately to save their countries. Turkey is the only decisive player in all of this. That’s why Pashinyan went there — and both Pashinyan and Azerbaijan know very well that Turkey is a NATO member and has the strongest army in the region, and that Turkey won’t act like Russia here. If Putin keeps stoking this, if he pushes for further escalation, it will lead to the break-up of Russia — won’t have this trademark Russian attitude, act like a master and a serf. Turkey wants cooperation on equal terms.
LET ME PRETEND I’M A PRO-KREMLIN JOURNALIST AND ASK: MIGHT TURKEY STOP PLAYING FAIR ONCE RUSSIA IS GONE?
No, that’s impossible. Because Turkey is a NATO member. NATO members will never allow Turkey to act here the way Russia does. Everything in this world is interconnected. And Turkey is not a nuclear state — the West has more leverage over Turkey than over Russia.
AND IF RUSSIA REFUSES TO LEAVE?
Azerbaijan is not a weak country in military terms. Azerbaijan showed its strength in Karabakh. And I know for a fact that, since then, Azerbaijan has been actively ramping up its military potential. In addition, there is the Shusha Declaration between Turkey and Azerbaijan. There is also a strategic cooperation alliance between Azerbaijan and Pakistan. Pakistan, by the way, is a nuclear power. So Russia won’t swallow Azerbaijan that easily. Many of Putin’s Russian lapdogs are saying they should declare war, send in troops, and so on — but that would lead to Russia’s final collapse. Because any troop movement through the North Caucasus will blow up the North Caucasus. There’s Dagestan, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia. If that spark ignites, then later Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Yakutia… If Putin keeps stoking this, if he pushes for further escalation, it will lead to the break-up of Russia.