Op-Ed by Kushvinder Vohra*
There is a lot of misinformation around the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that is being spread through various articles appearing in newspapers, magazines, and online forums, including in Pakistan. Articles by so-called elites or scholars are nothing but general rhetoric to create public perception in Pakistan, devoid of facts. Although India has kept the Treaty in abeyance, it is important to look into the real issues behind the so-called water scarcity widely reported in Pakistan. They keep blaming India for their water woes as if India is to provide whatever water they think is required. As per Article III of the IWT, India was under an obligation to let the waters of the western rivers flow except for the uses permitted to it. Therefore, the flows received by Pakistan at any given time are dependent upon various factors such as rainfall in the catchment, snowmelt, etc., and the stipulated uses by India. As per various research institutes, Pakistan, on average, receives about 140 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually in the Indus Basin from the western rivers, which is still more than the 135 MAF estimated at the time of the Treaty.
However, in the eastern rivers, flows are reported to have been reduced by about 15% from the 33 MAF that was assessed at that time. So why all the rhetoric against India? If we dive deep into the issue, the truth is not far off. Out of about 140 MAF, Pakistan’s diversion for irrigation use is only about 104 MAF. The rest is either wasted in the system or flows to the sea.
The real issue behind the so-called water scarcity in Pakistan is the mismanagement of the water received and a host of other factors that are barely being discussed by experts in Pakistan. Hardly any public discussion takes place about the inaction and failure of stakeholders in Pakistan (including the Government of Pakistan) to manage precious water resources, especially when the ground realities have changed immensely since the signing of the Treaty in 1960. Could this be a deliberate agenda to always blame India and play the victim card to divert attention from the real issue, namely the mismanagement of water resources in Pakistan? Let’s look at the facts.
Water Use in Pakistan
During the 1950s, Pakistan was using around 66 MAF of water, irrigating around 21 million acres (MAc) of land in the Indus Basin. Water use in the Indus Basin has since increased to 104 MAF to irrigate about 34 MAc. It may be noted that the water used per unit of irrigated area is almost the same as it was in 1960.
However, the ground realities have changed. The population has been increasing, which reduces per capita water availability. However, the same is true for India as well. Thus, the water management practices followed at the time of the Treaty are now totally outdated and require an understanding of the complex linkages between water, food, and the energy nexus. India has already taken a huge leap in this regard, whereas Pakistan has not initiated this earnestly. Despite getting only 33 MAF of water (20% of the total water), India is irrigating about 26 MAc of land in the eastern part of the Indus Basin. This shows that water productivity in Pakistan is very poor.
Poor Water Governance in Pakistan
A World Bank (WB) Group study report titled Pakistan: Getting More from Water (the study report states that the information is updated through September 2018) took a long-term view of Pakistan’s water security through 2047. The study concludes that Pakistan is well endowed with water (including the Indus Basin), and only 16 other countries have more water. However, being the sixth-most populous country, water availability per person is low. Here it is worth mentioning that the reduction in per capita water availability in Pakistan is mainly due to population growth, and, quantitatively, Pakistan is, on average, getting the same or even more water in the Indus Basin than was estimated at the time of signing the IWT.
Further, according to the study report, water security may be challenging, but it does not define a country’s economic destiny. Interestingly, there are 32 countries with less water per person than Pakistan. Across these countries, the average per capita GDP is 10 times that of Pakistan. Only six of these 32 countries are poorer than Pakistan, all African nations with little irrigation investment and heavy reliance on traditional rain-fed agriculture.
The report also states that Pakistan does not make the best use of its water endowment and that water security is undermined by poor water resource management. Long-term water-related risks are not recognized and are poorly mitigated. It also states that water resource management in Pakistan is compromised by poor water data governance, weak planning, widespread pollution, overexploitation of groundwater (GW), low water productivity, and weak processes that prevent reliable flood and drought forecasting, among other factors.
Thus, considering that more than 90% of the water in Pakistan is used for irrigation, it is imperative that water losses be reduced and water productivity be improved to tackle current challenges. It is also worth mentioning that Pakistan has not created adequate storage. Water follows its natural cycle, and about 80% of it arrives within four months. Therefore, without adequate storage, Pakistan can never achieve reliable Rabi irrigation. Simply pointing fingers at India for its own poor governance will not help in any way. Pakistan needs to sincerely work on improving water governance because, on average, sufficient water is available.
Wastage of Water and Low Water Productivity
Another analysis, Water Management in the Indus Basin in Pakistan: Challenges and Opportunities (by Asad Sarwar Qureshi), published by the International Mountain Society (August 2011), also confirms that the Indus Basin brings an average of 175 BCM (about 142 MAF) of water to Pakistan, which is more than was estimated at the time of signing the IWT. Out of this, 128 BCM (about 104 MAF) is diverted for irrigation, 12 BCM (9.7 MAF) is lost as system losses, and 35 BCM (28.2 MAF) flows into the sea. Thus, despite being endowed with large water resources, Pakistan is able to use only about 73% of them, while the rest is wasted or escapes. Moreover, the productivity of the 104 MAF diverted for irrigation is low. The paper states that water productivity in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. For wheat, for example, it is 0.5 kg/m³ compared with 1.0 kg/m³ in India. In fact, Pakistan has made no real effort to increase crop water productivity.
In contrast, India has made huge investments in schemes such as Per Drop More Crop, water-shed development, micro-irrigation, command area development, etc. During the last decade alone, more than Rs. 1.25 lakh crore has been spent on these central schemes to improve crop water productivity. In addition, states have also spent substantial amounts on their own initiatives.
Low Storage Capacity
Compared to other arid countries, Pakistan has storage capacity equal to only 15% of its annual river flow. According to reported figures, Pakistan can barely store 30 days of water. After constructing Tarbela Dam 30 years ago, Pakistan made no decision to construct new storage. Without adequate storage, Pakistan cannot make use of a substantial portion of the water resources in the Indus Basin, most of which arrive during the four monsoon months, resulting in substantial volumes flowing to the sea.
Water Conservation
Pakistan has not made any serious efforts in water conservation to deal with climate change. Therefore, it is logical that it experiences water scarcity from time to time despite receiving as much or more Indus water than was estimated in 1960.
On the other hand, India has continuously worked on water conservation and has spent about Rs. 90,000 crore annually during the last decade. During the last eight years alone, 11 BCM of water has been conserved through newly built tanks, ponds, and other groundwater recharge structures across the country. In contrast, Pakistan has so far only paid lip service to this vital issue.
As reported in the Pakistani media, in a knee-jerk reaction to India’s decision to keep the IWT in abeyance, Pakistan announced plans to build a large number of small-scale reservoirs. However, judging by its past record and current financial situation, it remains to be seen whether such measures will actually be implemented.
Overexploitation of Groundwater (GW) Resources
It is reported that over the past decades, millions of private tube wells have been dug, and groundwater extraction has far exceeded recharge. The average decline in the groundwater table is about 1.5 m/year. Poor groundwater quality and salinity further compound the problem. Not many efforts appear to have been made in this regard in Pakistan.
In India, the groundwater situation has also been similar. However, India has been taking consistent steps, especially during the last decade. According to the latest groundwater assessment report, water tables have increased in many areas, thanks to schemes launched across the country.
Punjab has launched the initiative Bijli Bachayo, Paisa Kamayo to curb the misuse of free electricity for groundwater extraction. Haryana has launched a scheme that incentivizes farmers to diversify from paddy to crops requiring less water.
Many other states have also introduced similar schemes. Community-led groundwater management under an initiative of the Central Government promotes integrated water resources management. Combined with the National Aquifer Mapping Program, these schemes represent a paradigm shift in groundwater management across various river basins in India, including the Indus Basin.
Irrigation Infrastructure
Pakistan has focused primarily on creating canal infrastructure. As mentioned above, a great deal of water is wasted within the system. There has been no concrete effort to modernize infrastructure to improve efficiency. Only a few studies and pilot projects have been carried out through the ADB and others, and these have not been expanded to larger areas.
Consequently, huge quantities of water continue to be wasted within the system itself.
On the other hand, India has made tremendous efforts to improve irrigation throughout the country by modernizing irrigation systems through the use of SCADA, pipes in distributary systems, micro-irrigation, and water management through user associations.
While Pakistan remains frozen in time, India is clearly making progress in managing water resources despite facing similar challenges, including population growth and climate change.
Interprovincial Disputes in Pakistan
In 1991, the Water Apportionment Accord was signed by Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan to resolve long-standing water distribution conflicts. However, each province has interpreted it differently, and each blames the others for the misappropriation of water.
The absence of coordination and mutual trust has prevented meaningful improvements in water resource management, reducing the issue to simply receiving flows. This has stalled crucial projects such as the Kalabagh Dam, which could significantly increase Pakistan’s storage capacity.
Conclusion
Pakistan, on average, is receiving as much or more water (142 MAF) in the Indus Basin as was estimated at the time of signing the IWT. Pakistan is not managing it properly. System losses amount to about 12 BCM (9.7 MAF), and another 35 BCM (28.3 MAF) flows to the sea. Only about 104 MAF is diverted for irrigation. The water-use efficiency of this diverted water is very low, and crop water productivity is among the lowest in the world.
The real issue is not the inflow of the Indus River system into Pakistan but its poor management. The 36 MAF of water that is currently wasted or allowed to flow into the sea is sufficient to significantly enhance Pakistan’s water security.
India faces similar concerns related to population growth and climate change. However, it is taking long-term action by focusing on modernization of irrigation systems, groundwater recharge, rainwater harvesting, water conservation, crop water productivity, wastewater recycling, and reducing river pollution to achieve water security despite these challenges. Pakistan does not appear to have taken comparable concrete action.
Pakistan needs to move beyond the mindset that prevailed during the negotiations of the IWT, when it alleged that India interfered with its waters in the Indus Basin. Since then, it has portrayed India as the upper riparian capable of turning off its tap and has objected to virtually every hydroelectric project in India, although such projects are permitted under the IWT. Pakistan’s own negligence in water management is, in fact, responsible for its water woes in the Indus Basin.
No amount of water flow can help Pakistan unless it adopts integrated water resources management by improving its systems, crop water productivity, groundwater management, storage capacity, agricultural practices, institutional reforms, monitoring systems, the use of modern technology, and the resolution of interprovincial disputes.
Public discourse on the above issues would help Pakistan work toward the sustainable use of water. Hiding the real issues and focusing on imaginary ones by blaming India is not going to be helpful. Pakistan has already benefited from a number of studies by the World Bank Group and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), and it is time to consider the findings of these studies rather than maintaining the same old rhetoric, which is nothing more than an attempt to divert attention from the real issues plaguing Pakistan’s water sector.
*Kushvinder Vohra is the Former Chairman, Central Water Commission & Ex-officio Secretary to the Government of India and Former Indian Commissioner, Indus
