Georgia’s jailed ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili is seen on a screen on a video call from a medical clinic, presenting himself for a court hearing. His legal team has been fighting to have him relinquished to a more well equipped facility abroad over his rapidly deteriorating health. However, these demands have seemingly fallen on deaf ears.
Saakashvili, who led the country during some of its more turbulent years between 2004 to 2013, is incarcerated, serving a six-year charge. This charge, according to him and his supporters, is politically motivated, and unsupported by law.
“If I’d predicted such a rapid invasion [of Ukraine], and also my torture and poisoning in prison, I wouldn’t have come back,” he said on a note that was reportedly passed to his legal counsel. “I’m afraid of the West’s loss of interest in the war. And I’m afraid of my death in prison, and it’s inevitable if I do stay here, because it would be a major victory for Putin.”
While his detention upon arrival was heavily protested, not only by locals but also European politicians, it’s the recent verdict that raised the stakes. A Tbilisi City Court under Judge Giorgi Arevadze did not grant the request for the reprieve or release of former President despite his ongoing medical issues. The political opposition in the United National Movement political party, as well as Strategy Aghmashenebeli, have walked out of Parliament, refusing to take part and calling their supporters to “street action.”
Saakashvili’s precarious situation has not only garnered the support of local activists, but also outspoken politicians in Europe and Ukraine. Both have called on Tbilisi to relent and allow the veteran politician to seek care elsewhere. Both Kyiv and Brussels have asked that he potentially be released due to a part of law that cites inmates being remanded to medical facilities in the instance of severe illness.
But Official Tbilisi, and the ruling party in government ‘Georgian Dream’, have harshly refused. Irakli Kobakhidze, chairman of Georgian Dream, lashed out at the European leaders, saying that he is annoyed by talk of the former President.
“It’s really infuriating that there is so much talk about Saakashvili,” he stated, mirroring prior statements that are likely to damage the reputation of the country in the eyes of the European Union.
This damage to the country’s facade would not only further stagnate economic development, but also hinder Western involvement. And some damage has already been done. The visible frustration by the ruling party over the status of a political opponent, poorly disguised as indifference, is not a good look.
All of this leads to a general increase in dissatisfaction with the current government. The problems also stem from a lack of faith in the electoral process in the country. In an International Republican Institute (IRI) poll from the 2021 municipal elections, the population was split, with 32% saying the elections were “sufficiently flawed that you would doubt the accuracy of the results” or that they were “not at all free and fair.” Another 32% said they were “completely free and fair” and another 25% admitted that there were “some problems, but [they were] reasonably free and fair.”
With so much popular doubt about the electoral process, it leads to the question; where does this point in the country? Can Georgia unify and bring both the ruling party and the opposition together to serve the people? Or will the division tear the country apart and plunge it into the darkness and uncertainty witnessed in the 1990s?
While many have clamored for the national leadership to change its course, lest they be left behind by the West, others say it will take significant action. One such individual, a retired American military officer and former senior member of the US Embassy staff in Tbilisi, remaining unnamed, says it’s “it’s revolution or bust.” According to the US combat veteran and former armored reconnaissance commander, the activities of Georgia Dream are causing the country to spiral down the drain.
From trading verbal blows with the US Ambassador and EU leaders to the ongoing involvement of former Prime Minister of Georgian Bidzina Ivanishvili in political combat, the individual says the future is looking bleak. With few other candidates offering any real change, Georgian Dream has the country right where they want it.
The opposition, he says, isn’t doing themselves any favors. All the other political players are either marred by previous transgressions or are too unknown and don’t have the ‘weight’ to bring in the votes. This leaves only someone with the name of Saakashvili to rally enough support. However, most people would agree that while the deplorable state of Saakashvili is heartbreaking to watch, they still don’t want him in power.
The variability and potentially volatility of introducing a new ruling party is outweighed by the constant that is Georgian Dream. The situation is much like the stability and predictability of the Soviet era, where, while the situation was poor, it was stable and a known constant. This complacency is noted by politicians of other former-Soviet states.
The Baltic states are a prime example of this. Despite years of turbulence from the proverbial ripping out of the Russian umbilical cord, they managed to not only integrate in the EU, but also NATO and other European economic and political organizations. Their economy continues to flourish, and their security is virtually guaranteed.
For the future of Georgia, change is inevitable. Just as Saakashvili withers away in a clinic bed under the watchful eye of the best security resources the country can provide, so too does the hope of EU acceptance wither for Georgia. However, unlike the former President, the country is not doomed to a fate of relegation: There is still hope for the Jewel of the South Caucasus.
The nation cannot rest on its laurels having pulled itself from a faltering post-Soviet country in the 1990s and early 2000s. There is still an immense amount of work to do, even if that means significant change and overhauling improvements. But therein lies the prize, the fruit gained from the excruciating labor of political, judicial, educational, military, and economic reforms.
By Michael Godwin
