As winter tightens its grip on Eastern Europe, the war in Ukraine has entered another intense week, marked by grinding combat along the front, large-scale Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, and Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia’s industrial heartland. All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of accelerating talks around a US-brokered peace plan pushed by President Donald Trump, a proposal that could fundamentally reshape the conflict, but which remains highly contentious in Kyiv, Moscow, and across Europe.
On the ground, the epicenter of the fighting remains the eastern Donetsk region and the broader Pokrovsk axis, where Russia has concentrated forces for months in an effort to push west and consolidate its control over the Donbas. Moscow’s military leadership claimed this week that its troops had captured a string of villages in eastern Ukraine, including several settlements in Donetsk and one in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces, according to these statements, now control around 70% of Pokrovsk, and have made significant gains around Kupiansk and Vovchansk. Ukrainian officials dispute several of these claims, insisting they still hold key defensive lines, particularly in the northern part of Pokrovsk and along vital railway corridors that sustain their logistics and rotations. Independent analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note that Russia has intensified operations in the Pokrovsk direction but report no confirmed breakthrough, describing the situation as a slow, attritional advance, rather than a decisive offensive.
Weather and technology continue to shape the fighting. Ukrainian officials say small Russian infiltration groups are exploiting dense fog and winter conditions to slip past drone surveillance along a front line that stretches roughly 1,200 kilometers. These groups probe weak spots, plant mines, and attempt to seize tactical positions until reinforcements arrive. While drones dominate the battlefield and account for most strikes on both sides, the reduced visibility has allowed ground troops to regain a more prominent role, reinforcing the sense that the war has taken on elements of static, trench-style combat reminiscent at times of the First World War.
Where movement on the front remains limited, the air war has sharply escalated. Russia continued its campaign to systematically degrade Ukraine’s power grid and energy infrastructure this week, launching another large, coordinated wave of missiles and Shahed-type drones overnight on 24–25 November. Ukrainian authorities reported strikes on Kyiv and multiple regions, calling it one of the heaviest barrages in weeks. A Russian attack on the capital on 25 November killed at least seven people, wounded more than thirty, destroyed housing blocks, and knocked out electricity and heating in several districts.
According to UN human rights monitors, combined missile and long-range drone attacks that night killed at least eight civilians and injured at least thirty-four, including children, underlining once again that Russia’s winter strategy aims not only to damage infrastructure, but to inflict maximum psychological pressure on the population.
These latest strikes followed repeated attacks in recent days on cities such as Odesa and on targets in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where drones and missiles have hammered residential areas and industrial facilities, destroying vehicles, damaging gas pipelines, and injuring civilians. Analysts observe that since early October Russia has launched at least nine massed attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, using large salvos of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles designed to overwhelm Western-supplied air defenses. The pattern suggests a deliberate attempt to wear down Ukraine’s resilience and limit its industrial and military capacity during the coldest months of the year.
Ukraine has responded by intensifying its own long-range campaign targeting Russian energy and logistics infrastructure. Over the weekend, Ukrainian drones struck a combined heating and power plant in Shatura in the Moscow region, igniting a large fire and temporarily shutting down heating across parts of the district as temperatures hovered around freezing. Authorities say the plant later resumed operations, but the attack underscored Kyiv’s growing ability to hit critical facilities far beyond the immediate war zone. Elsewhere, Ukraine launched a new wave of attacks on Black Sea refineries and oil terminals, marking at least the third major strike on Russian coastal energy infrastructure this month alone.
These operations are part of a wider strategy to sap Moscow’s ability to fund and fuel its war machine by hitting refineries, depots, rail hubs, and power stations. Ukrainian officials say that in 2025 alone they have conducted well over a hundred drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, affecting a substantial portion of the country’s refining capacity. In response, Russia has moved to harden its domestic defenses: President Vladimir Putin recently signed legislation allowing the deployment of reservists to guard fuel infrastructure, introduced a legal basis for localized internet shutdowns, and imposed harsher penalties for sabotage. These measures reflect the Kremlin’s expectation of a long war and continued Ukrainian attacks inside Russia.
The human cost of this week’s escalation has been severe. In addition to the dozens killed and injured in the 25 November barrage, authorities in Zaporizhzhia reported at least nineteen people wounded in a massive drone strike that damaged residential buildings. Previous attacks throughout the month left more casualties in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, and smaller towns near the front. Russia, meanwhile, acknowledged limited civilian losses from Ukrainian drone strikes on oil and power facilities, though independent verification remains difficult. Military casualties on both sides are even harder to assess, but Ukraine’s General Staff and independent monitors report up to 170 clashes per day along the line of contact, pointing to a level of attrition that remains brutally high as both armies fight through fortified positions and winter weather.
Above the battlefield looms the controversial US-brokered peace initiative promoted by President Trump. The original version of the plan—described as a 28-point proposal emerging from contacts between US envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump adviser Jared Kushner, and Russian sovereign fund head Kirill Dmitriev—has drawn intense criticism after reports emerged that it echoed major elements of an unofficial Russian “non-paper” provided to the Trump team in October. That draft reportedly demanded sweeping Ukrainian concessions: ceding large territories in the east, accepting strict limitations on its armed forces, and pledging never to join NATO. These terms were previously rejected by Kyiv, and widely viewed in Europe as a capitulation that would reward Russian aggression.
Following strong backlash from Ukraine, European allies, and members of the US Congress, negotiators from Washington and Kyiv have been working to narrow and revise the proposal. According to US officials and ISW assessments, the plan has now been reduced from 28 to 19 points, with nine of the most controversial items removed or rewritten. A senior US official told CBS News that Ukraine has agreed in principle to the “essence” of the revised framework. Ukrainian National Security Adviser Rustem Umerov confirmed that both sides have reached a “common understanding,” though several sensitive issues remain unresolved.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv is ready to move forward with discussions and is prepared to debate the most difficult provisions directly with Trump, alongside key European partners. He has nevertheless emphasized that any agreement must protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, provide real security guarantees, and avoid freezing Russian territorial gains in place, which could invite future aggression.
Trump has projected optimism, claiming Russia is “making concessions” and that Zelensky is “happy” with the talks, even as he quietly dropped his earlier target of securing a ceasefire by Thanksgiving. US officials continue shuttle diplomacy: Witkoff has traveled to Moscow to meet Putin, while Army Secretary Dan Driscoll visited Kyiv for consultations. Delegations from the US, Ukraine, and Russia have also met in Abu Dhabi and Geneva to refine the text further.
Moscow has publicly challenged Trump’s narrative. Russian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, have argued that no real concessions have been made, and insist that any agreement must reflect Russia’s core demands—recognition of its claimed annexations and limits on Ukraine’s alignment with the West. The Kremlin says it is reviewing the proposal and finds some points “acceptable,” but stresses that more expert work is needed, signaling Moscow’s reluctance to endorse any deal that does not secure its battlefield gains.
In Europe, reaction to the Trump plan has been cool to sharply critical. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned strongly against “carving up” a sovereign European state and reiterated that borders cannot be altered by force. EU leaders participating in the latest round of talks within the so-called Coalition of the Willing—a group of more than thirty countries committed to long-term support for Ukraine—have stressed that peace must be “just and lasting,” not a temporary pause allowing Russia to regroup. At the same time, the debate over financing Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction is intensifying. The EU is negotiating a proposal to use around €140 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets as a loan to Ukraine, though legal objections from Belgium and political resistance from Hungary remain obstacles.
Meanwhile, the US and EU continue to expand sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector and shadow fleet, seeking to constrict the revenues Moscow uses to sustain its war effort, even as Ukraine escalates its direct strikes on Russian refineries and power plants.
Compiled by Ana Dumbadze
