Ukraine has launched a major attack on Russia, with its troops entering Russia in what appears to be its biggest and most serious incursion into the country since Moscow’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
A Ukrainian force numbering in the hundreds, backed with armored vehicles, advanced on Tuesday across the border into Russia’s Kursk region.
The Ukrainian troops appeared to have captured a number of settlements in the border area around the village of Sudzha, advancing perhaps as much as 15 km inside Russia, and heavy fighting is reported to be continuing.
The Ukrainian incursion prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold urgent meetings on Wednesday with his government and defense leadership, while local authorities said thousands of Russian civilians were being evacuated away from the fighting.
The Russian Telegram account VChK-OGPU, that is linked to the Wagner mercenary group, on Wednesday claimed a column of Ukrainian troops had passed through the village of Lyubimovka, about 6 miles inside the border, saying that they appeared to be moving towards another village, Korenovo.
Ukrainian troops also reportedly entered the border town of Sudzha. Sudzha is home to a key pipeline hub for supplying gas to Europe. The situation for Russian forces continued to deteriorate Wednesday, with Ukrainian troops said to have entered at least 11 settlements since Tuesday.
Russia’s defense ministry initially claimed to have rebuffed the Ukrainian attack and forced them to retreat. The head of Russia’s General Staff, Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov, on Wednesday briefed Putin that more than 1,000 Ukrainian troops had crossed the border. He claimed that hundreds had been killed and wounded. But it was clear on Wednesday that intense fighting was continuing, as Russian officials announced further evacuations of civilians from the region. At least 31 civilians were injured by shelling, according to local officials in Kursk.
The Ukrainian attack is the largest it has mounted into Russia. Ukraine previously launched smaller raids using Russian groups opposed to the Kremlin and controlled by Ukrainian intelligence, entering border villages and then retreating. This is the first time Ukrainian military units have entered Russia in such numbers.
Multiple theories have emerged on Ukraine’s goal with the offensive, with most analysts suggesting it could be an attempt to force Russia to divert forces away from elsewhere in Ukraine at a time when Ukrainian forces are under intense pressure in parts of the Donbas region. Some Ukrainian analysts have also indicated it could be an attempt to pre-empt a planned Russian offensive into the neighboring Ukrainian region of Sumy.
Some have also suggested Ukraine could be seeking to seize territory to give it leverage in potential peace negotiations to trade for Ukrainian occupied territory. Russian military bloggers have expressed alarm that Ukraine could even be seeking to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Station that lies about 35 miles from the border. That appears unrealistic for such a small force to capture, although Russia’s National Guard on Wednesday announced it was reinforcing security at the plant.
“It wasn’t accidental,” said war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets in a Facebook post. “It’s clearly part of one clear plan.”
Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst, told the BBC that Russia had been forced to redeploy some troops there from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
“If you look at official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area,” he said.
“That means the aircraft which carry them are now elsewhere in Russia.”
This incursion is extremely unlikely to be Ukraine looking to occupy Russian territory, but if pulling in Russian forces was a goal, it is quickly being realized.
Some Ukrainian and independent military analysts have questioned the wisdom of such a risky operation at a time when Ukraine is suffering from intense troop shortages and Russian forces have been advancing towards the key strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donbas.
Ukraine has not officially commented on the attack. In general, very few senior Ukrainian figures are saying much about this attack.
Sources: ABC News, The BBC
Compiled by Ana Dumbadze
