Fighting across Ukraine this week stayed defined by a familiar pattern: Russia sustained pressure on multiple axes in the east and south, seeking incremental gains around key hubs in Donetsk Oblast, while Ukraine leaned heavily on drones and precision strikes to disrupt Russian logistics and fuel networks deep behind the line. The heaviest ground pressure continued to sit around the Pokrovsk area and the broader Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka tactical zone, where Russian forces have been trying to widen breaches and probe for infiltration opportunities, while Ukraine reported localized counter-movements and limited advances on parts of the front.
In Donetsk Oblast, the fight around Pokrovsk remained one of the week’s central battlegrounds. Ukrainian reporting and independent assessments described intense daily assault activity with Russia attempting to press from multiple directions—toward and within the Pokrovsk area and along the surrounding settlements—while Ukraine mounted localized counterattacks and held the line under sustained pressure. Ukrainian forces were assessed to have made limited advances north of Pokrovsk, including in areas around Rodynske, reflecting continued efforts to blunt Russian approaches and complicate attempts to widen the salient.
Just east of that, Russia’s operational emphasis appeared increasingly tied to the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka tactical area—part of the broader push to threaten and eventually encircle key Ukrainian urban strongpoints. Independent assessments this week referenced Russian advances and infiltration efforts around the H-20 highway line near Yablunivka, with reports of attempted deeper penetration into southeastern Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces, for their part, continued to report ongoing engagements across the direction, including pressure linked to Russian attempts to exploit winter conditions and reduced drone visibility for small-group assaults and infiltration.
Further north in the Kupyansk area, Ukraine was assessed to have made a marginal advance within Kupyansk itself earlier in the week, while Russian forces continued attacks toward and around the city and nearby villages. The Kupyansk sector remains strategically important because it anchors Ukrainian defenses in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and helps protect approaches deeper into the region; Russia’s continued attempts here suggest Moscow is still trying to keep Ukraine stretched along multiple fronts rather than concentrating solely on Donetsk.
On the northern border axis, assessments also pointed to Russian advances in Sumy Oblast, including movement in the Yunakivka area northeast of Sumy City. While this does not represent a dramatic breakthrough, it reinforces a steady Russian objective: keep pressure on border regions, force Ukraine to allocate manpower to defensive depth, and maintain the threat of expanded operations that complicate Ukrainian planning.
In the south, the Hulyaipole direction again drew attention. Russian forces were assessed to have advanced in and around Hulyaipole, with geolocated indicators suggesting a Russian presence and movement deeper into northern parts of the town, alongside indications of infiltration-style activity that may not immediately change control lines but can degrade Ukrainian rear-area security and targeting teams. Ukrainian reporting has described Hulyaipole as contested—often a “gray zone” dynamic where small groups move in poor weather, attempt to strike drone operators and artillery crews, and test the defense for weak seams.
While territorial movement remained incremental, the week’s most disruptive events for civilians came from the air war—especially the renewed focus on energy and critical infrastructure during deep winter. On January 7–8, Russian strikes caused near-total power disruption in parts of southeastern Ukraine, with Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions reported as “almost completely without electricity,” forcing critical infrastructure onto backup power and leaving large numbers of residents without reliable heat and water amid plunging temperatures. Ukrainian officials and emergency services described intensive repair efforts under continued threat, while local authorities warned residents to prepare for extended outages and rely on generators where possible.
Earlier in the week, Russia also struck Kharkiv with missiles that damaged energy infrastructure and contributed to a rising casualty toll from attacks on the city. A separate strike on January 2 was reported to have killed at least two people and injured dozens in Kharkiv, underscoring how the winter strike campaign continues to blend pressure on energy systems with heavy civilian harm in dense urban areas.
Kyiv and the surrounding region were also hit. A Russian attack overnight into January 5 resulted in the first reported civilian deaths in the capital area this year, according to Ukrainian authorities, including fatalities in Kyiv and in the Fastiv district southwest of the city, along with damage that contributed to local power disruptions.
Ukraine’s long-range response remained focused on Russia’s fuel, energy, and ammunition networks. Russian authorities reported a notable escalation in Ukrainian drone activity, including claims that Moscow has been targeted daily since the start of the year—an operational tempo that, if sustained, is designed to force Russia into constant air-defense expenditure and impose economic and logistical costs.
Ukraine and independent assessments also highlighted strikes on oil depots and refineries, including incidents in regions such as Belgorod and Krasnodar. One strike ignited a fire at an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast, with local officials reporting no casualties there, while other Ukrainian drone activity earlier targeted industrial and energy facilities across multiple regions.
On the Russian side of the casualty ledger, Ukrainian drone strikes in border regions produced confirmed civilian deaths this week. Reuters reported that a Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod struck a vehicle, killing one man and injuring a woman and a four-year-old child.
Other reporting, including AP, also described additional fatalities in Russia’s border regions amid the broader spike in cross-border drone activity.
In Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, Moscow also accused Ukraine of causing mass casualties in a New Year’s Day drone strike on a hotel/café area in the occupied Kherson region, alleging at least 24 killed; Ukraine did not confirm the claim in that reporting.
Diplomatically, the week was marked by intensified talks in Paris around potential post-war security guarantees—efforts that run in parallel to continued fighting rather than replacing it. France, the UK, Ukraine and the United States participated in “Coalition of the Willing” discussions, and a formal statement issued via the EU Council framed the talks around “robust security guarantees” to underpin a durable peace, indicating that planning is moving beyond general political support toward defined mechanisms. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said any deployment of British troops to Ukraine after a peace agreement would be subject to a parliamentary vote, reinforcing that the concept under discussion is structured as a post-ceasefire security architecture rather than direct frontline combat deployment.
Reuters also cited details attributed to the Paris discussions describing potential “military hubs” and protected facilities to support Ukraine’s defense needs after a ceasefire—language that highlights a growing emphasis on deterrence and regeneration of Ukrainian forces, not just emergency resupply.
International support this week therefore looked less like a single headline weapons package and more like a tightening web of security planning while winter strike pressure continues. Canada’s recently announced multi-billion support, focused on economic stabilization rather than immediate battlefield supplies, remains part of the broader picture of sustaining Ukraine’s state capacity through a prolonged war and winter infrastructure crisis.
Compiled by Ana Dumbadze
