The US’ competition with China and the latter’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific region have pushed Japan and South Korea to mend their historically fraught ties. On August 18, the US hosts the first standalone summit between the three leaders, marking a significant shift in regional and potentially global geopolitical processes.
The main goal of the summit is to show that Seoul and Tokyo can put aside their historic disagreements and double down on the rapprochement which started earlier this year. The summit is also meant to serve as a signal that the security of South Korea and Japan revolves around the US.
The three are poised to expand mutual military cooperation and embrace the idea of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, in a clear reference to the US’ vision of the same geographic space. It is unlikely that there will be a treaty-like statement, but the summit will nevertheless convey a general belief that the three states are close on security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, and China in particular.
The summit is crucial, as it will address not only the issue of North Korea as a problem for South Korea and Japan, but will consider the projection of power of North Korea as a wider Indo-Pacific challenge. This is important, as it will help the US to garner far more quickly a coalition of the like-minded who could potentially be threatened by North Korean missiles.
The three countries will accelerate efforts to share long-promised real-time data on North Korea’s missile launches: Japan has better detection systems when it comes to where potential North Korean missiles will land, while the South Koreans possess proper technologies to monitor missile launches and initial trajectory. Another area the three would be looking at is the improvement of interoperability for conducting joint defense and forward-defense military drills.
The US will also push for Tokyo to become more active within QUAD and will encourage Seoul to show greater interest in this fledgling regional initiative. South Korea seems increasingly positive about embracing QUAD – a loose organization, without a clear-cut military component – beyond cooperation on vaccine and climate change issues. Seoul is now looking at QUAD as a tool to contain North Korea, while the US and Japan consider QUAD as an element crafted primarily to contain China. It is this major difference which the US side wants minimize so as to streamline the thinking among the Asian actors.
South Korea and Japan are also worried about North Korea’s growing tilt toward Russia, especially following the Russian defense minister’s recent visit to the Asian country. China, too, will feature high on the agenda, and though Tokyo and Seoul have different perceptions of China’s strength, the two nevertheless recognize the need to expand cooperation with the US as a powerful balance against Beijing.
The summit could also mark another trend: the resurgence of US influence, which has often been seen waning in some parts of the globe, especially amid the illiberal pushback. With the war in Ukraine, the US has doubled down on its security commitments to its European and Asian allies and partners. With the expanded NATO and highly militarized Ukraine, the US has now strengthened the front against Russia, effectively to contain it.
In broader terms, similar processes are taking place in Asia. The rise of China and North Korea’s increasingly sophisticated missiles are now pushing countries like Japan and South Korea to seek an outside, non-regional player which successfully manages to build anti-hegemonic coalitions against a rising continental force.
More specifically, the August 18 summit also marks a push for regional summits which allow the US to maintain its position as a power which uses its incomparable geographic to do what sea powers have been doing throughout history. The US will be a driver behind coalitions aimed to contain Russia and China, but the difference with the Cold War period is that the countries Washington will be relying on are much stronger now and can act as serious counterweights to their powerful neighbors.
Take Ukraine, which has not been defeated and is likely to sustain a longer term conflict. Nor are Japan and South Korea actors to be easily defeated in a major conflict. The US will be a principal military and economic backer, but the willingness of smaller states bordering on hegemonic actors will be no less crucial, and the US-South Korea-Japan summit is a good illustration of this.
By Emil Avdaliani
Emil Avdaliani is a professor at European University and the Director of Middle East Studies at the Georgian think-tank, Geocase.
