Op-Ed by Richard Brady*
Georgia stands at the edge of an existential cliff. In 2025, the world will witness whether this nation continues as a beacon of hope for democracy and Western values in the post-Soviet space, or collapses into a mere buffer state, a pawn manipulated by Moscow’s ruthless hand. The time for polite hedging is over. The United States and its allies must confront the brutal reality: the Georgian Dream party’s campaign to consolidate power and suffocate dissent is a deliberate pivot away from Euro-Atlantic integration towards the darkness of autocracy and Russian dominion. The stakes for the West could not be higher. The last bulwark between freedom and chaos in the South Caucasus is faltering, and how Washington and Europe respond will shape the region for a generation.
From Euro-Atlantic Aspiration to Authoritarian Regression
Since the Rose Revolution, Georgia has been lauded as the South Caucasus’s brightest prospect. It was a country that courageously cast off the Soviet yoke and set its sights on the Euro-Atlantic horizon. Successive governments invested in reforms, embraced the rule of law, and tethered the nation’s future to the promise of EU and NATO integration. This path was never merely strategic, but existential. Georgia’s soldiers bled alongside Americans in Afghanistan as the largest non-NATO contributor of forces. Its leaders risked everything for the ideals of liberal democracy. For this, the Georgian people earned the world’s respect.
But today, those hard-won gains are being systematically dismantled by a ruling party that has chosen self-preservation over sovereignty. The Georgian Dream regime, under the shadowy influence of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has abandoned the country’s Euro-Atlantic course. In its place, the government is building a political system that threatens to make Georgia indistinguishable from a Russian satellite. Gone are the days of bold reforms and open society; in their place, we see manufactured divisions, anti-Western rhetoric, and the steady erosion of democratic norms.
Diplomats Demonized, Protestors Beaten, Voices Silenced
The evidence of Georgia’s slide toward autocracy is stark—and multiplying. In the past year alone, Western diplomats have faced unprecedented hostility from government officials and state-aligned media. Ambassadors from the United States and European Union have been smeared as meddlers and imperialists, targeted in orchestrated propaganda campaigns reminiscent of the Kremlin’s playbook. In May, American and European envoys were publicly denounced simply for expressing support for civil society and the right to peaceful protest — a right now under direct assault in Tbilisi’s streets.
The government’s response to mass, non-violent demonstrations has been nothing short of a crackdown. Peaceful protestors — students, activists, ordinary citizens — are met with batons, tear gas, and water cannons. Journalists documenting the events are harassed, attacked, and in some cases hospitalized. Independent media outlets have been hit with spurious investigations and regulatory harassment designed to bankrupt and silence them.
The message is unmistakable: dissent is treason, and the only “acceptable” narratives are those sanctioned by the ruling party. This is not the Georgia the West supported for two decades. This is Russia’s Georgia.
The West Cannot Afford to Look Away
The future of Georgia will be decided in 2025, but the outcome will reverberate far beyond its borders. If Georgia is allowed to slide fully into Moscow’s orbit, it will embolden autocrats across the region and signal to other aspiring democracies that Western promises of support are hollow. If, however, the United States and its allies reaffirm their commitment — through diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, military engagement, and unambiguous political backing — Georgia can still reclaim its path toward freedom. The choice is stark: Georgia as a beacon of democratic resilience, or Georgia as a buffer sacrificed to Russian influence. The West must decide whether it is willing to defend one of the last outposts of liberty in the Caucasus, or watch it extinguished before our eyes.
* Richard Brady is an Advisory Board Member at Geocase, CEO of the Society of Defense Financial Management, and former US Military Attaché in Georgia (2013-2015)
