Independent journalist, political analyst and communications consultant, Konstantin Eggert is the former editor-in-chief of the BBC Russian Service Moscow bureau. Radio Free Europe’s Georgian Service sat down with him to discuss last week’s Prigozhin incident.
“It’s very difficult to determine exactly what we saw, but it certainly looked like a real military rebellion against Putin, in spite of the fact that Putin was not directly mentioned,” Eggert notes. “It is clear that this undermined and continues to undermine the Putin system. Yet, for some reason, Evgeny Prigozhin decided to stop the advance of his mercenaries and said he wanted to avoid bloodshed, as if he didn’t understand that when he was speeding towards Moscow. And the intermediary appears to be Lukashenko, which is both ridiculous and unbelievable.
Whatever happens, Putin has shortened his stay in the Kremlin
“What we can say for sure is that this event significantly weakened Putin’s grip on his own system. It significantly weakened his ability to prosecute the war. It created chaos among the millions of Russian civil servants on whose shoulders this regime stands. And this will have repercussions, even if tomorrow Prigozhin resumes what he was doing and forgets about the resignation of Gerasimov and Shoigu. I think that Putin’s regime, as we knew it, is over, and something new is starting in Russia. Perhaps it will be worse than it used to be, although it’s difficult to imagine something worse, especially if you’re Ukrainian. But I don’t think we can presume anymore that Putin is in full control of the country, and that he is really the master of his fate.”
Why would Prigozhin do what he did?
At this moment, we don’t know. But the mere fact that at least on the surface of it, it was Lukashenko who stopped the advance on Moscow means that, in the eyes of the Russian bureaucracy, Putin is no longer tops: He depends on Lukashenko to communicate with Prigozhin. And this means that Putin, who was saying in the morning that Prigozhin was a traitor, is now negotiating with the traitor through an intermediary who is supposed to be his junior partner.
There’s no way to explain it, other than to say that Putin was really afraid and he really needed a way out. And Prigozhin was also afraid, because although 25,000 well trained fighters could force its way into Moscow, it would not be enough to hold the city and to command full control of the country. I do suppose that all this means that both sides understood: for now, it is best to pretend that they have come to an agreement. But this elevates Prigozhin to the level of Putin. And this, of course, hits Putin very hard.
Russia is a society where citizens are in the minority
We’re dealing with a new political reality. And it doesn’t matter, in these circumstances, whether the rest of the country, the citizens, really understood what happened or not; a lot of them will continue to remain passive. That said, a lot of them, especially in the south of Russia, were very much disturbed by what happened.
It is clear that those who Putin relied on to run Russia, the local FSB, directors, policemen, heads of state corporations, people like that, they now know that Putin is no longer in full control. So it’s not the end of the story.
Can Putin sleep at night, knowing that Prigozhin is out there? As long as he breathes, as long as he is alive, can Putin afford to sleep?
Everything you’ve seen so far is like a better version of a Tom Clancy novel. I cannot imagine how Putin sleeps, whether he will continue to sleep or whether he will resign, or whether Prigozhin will be eliminated. I think that Prigozhin understands that his chances of survival are probably not that high. But I suppose that an important element of all that we’ll be seeing is what is happening with the war. I suppose that somehow it all has to do with the aggression against Ukraine. I think that we’ll see what noise comes from the Kremlin and we’ll see what the decision is regarding the war. Ukrainians definitely have a chance as long as there is chaos. Whatever remains of the Russian leadership wants to show that there is no chaos anymore. But there is, of course.
You say cracks are showing in Putin’s system. The Russians were tolerating Putin for so long because of the premise that he brought stability. Now, buildings are burning not in Ukraine, but in Rostov and Voronezh – what will it do to Putin’s “stabilocracy”?
The situation in Russia, as far as Russian society is concerned, is very simple. The majority of society was dormant. We didn’t see a lot of Prigozhin demonstrations. We also didn’t see any anti-Prigozhin demonstrations, or anyone demonstrating in Moscow for Putin. It is a society that will probably agree that “okay, thank God the bloodshed was averted. So we’ll try and go back to normal.” “Narod Bezmolvstvuet” – the people are silent, is the final line of Alexander Pushkin’s, to my mind most important play called Boris Godunov, which is about the time of Troubles in Russia, in the early 17th century.
This elevates Prigozhin to the level of Putin. And this, of course, hits Putin very hard
I think that the fact that the people are silent is not relevant to the power struggle that will continue. This is no longer the regime we knew. Lots of people will be looking at Putin now from a different angle. And we’ll be trying to understand what happened, as this stability, at least as far as significant decision makers in the country, is gone. And you will not be able to get it back. Because if this was a huge play staged by Putin, which I think is unlikely, then how can you trust the person that can play such tricks on you? If it wasn’t, then it’s clear that Putin had to basically scramble and save himself. In both cases, I think we’ll see more cracks inside the Russian system. Whatever happens, Putin shortened his stay in the Kremlin, that is if he will stay in the Kremlin at all.
Whatever Prigozhin’s real motivations might be, it boils down to Russians killing other Russians because they disagree about how to better kill Ukrainians. What does it say about Russia?
Well, it just adds to the picture, that of very significant moral crisis inside society. A moral crisis that I’m afraid may lead to society never being able to rise again and do something good about its own country. What’s happened definitely shows us the depths of the moral crisis that Russian society is undergoing. It is not for Putin, it is not against Putin, “it is okay to kill others, as long as it basically doesn’t touch me too much.” It is okay for armed gangs to capture the cities and then for them to retreat. It is a society where citizens are in the minority. And this means that whoever is in the Kremlin will be able to basically present society with any choice he or she chooses. And there is a very high chance that society will just accept it. It is an issue of a society that basically agrees to any order coming from above. Some gladly, some grudgingly, some actually want to isolate themselves from reality and did it pretty successfully until recently. So any change that may come in such circumstances will definitely come from intra-elite struggles, rather than some kind of popular democratic revolution. And this, to me, is probably the perspective we will be facing in the coming weeks and months.
Tragic, isn’t it.
It is.
Interview by Vazha Tavberidze
