TBC Capital’s new assessment shows that the future trajectory of Georgia’s real estate market will depend largely on how long tensions in the Middle East persist. The report emphasizes two contrasting scenarios, with outcomes ranging from moderate growth to potential market decline.
In a scenario where the conflict is resolved quickly, 2026 could outperform earlier expectations, partly due to potential migration flows into Georgia from affected regions.
Under this more optimistic outlook:
- Apartment salesare projected to reach 80,100 units, reflecting 2% growth, up from a pre-conflict forecast of 1.4% (79,600 units)
- Housing demand, both for purchases and rentals, is expected to increase
- Average pricescould rise to around $1,325 per square meter, marking annual growth of 3.2%
However, TBC Capital warns that a prolonged or escalating conflict would likely have the opposite effect.
Extended regional instability could:
- Weaken consumer confidence,
- Slow transaction activity,
- Limit price growth across the market.
In a more adverse scenario, the report suggests the market could face a decline in both sales volumes and property prices.
This would be driven by heightened uncertainty and more cautious buyer behavior as investors and households delay purchasing decisions amid increased geopolitical risks.
The analysis shows the sensitivity of Georgia’s real estate sector to external geopolitical developments, particularly those that influence migration patterns and investor sentiment.
Ultimately, the report concludes that the duration and intensity of the Middle East conflict will be a main factor shaping the market’s performance in 2026.
