Pressure on Iran is rising from two directions at once: from the streets at home and from Washington abroad. As protests continue across the country, the United States is escalating its rhetoric and military posture, with consequences that reach beyond the Middle East and into the South Caucasus, including Georgia.
US President Donald Trump this week urged Iran’s leadership to return to negotiations and accept what he called a “fair agreement” that would rule out nuclear weapons. Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he hopes Iran will “quickly sit down at the negotiating table,” adding that “time is of the essence now.”
Trump said a “massive armada,” led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, is moving toward the region. He described the deployment as larger than previous US naval missions, and said it is advancing “with great strength and enthusiasm.” Recalling earlier warnings to Tehran, Trump claimed Iran’s refusal to make a deal led to what he called “Operation Midnight Hammer,” which he said caused major destruction. He warned that any future strike would be far more severe.
Tehran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful and rejects talks conducted under threat.
Inside Iran, the situation remains grim. Protests that began in late December 2025 over economic hardship and political frustration have spread nationwide. Rights groups say more than 6,000 protesters, and likely many thousands more, have been killed in the security forces’ response, a figure the authorities dispute.
Since early January, the government has enforced a near-total internet blackout, cutting off access to social media and independent news. Activists say the shutdown is meant to disrupt protest organization and prevent evidence of violence from reaching the outside world.
One striking feature of the unrest has been the way funerals have turned into protests. Families and mourners have used traditional burial ceremonies to voice anger and defiance, chanting slogans, playing music, and openly honoring those killed. These gatherings allow people to grieve while also keeping the protest movement alive under heavy repression.
The Trump administration is deepening its engagement in the South Caucasus. Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to visit both Armenia and Azerbaijan in February 2026 to reinforce the US role in regional peace and cooperation under what the administration calls the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. His trip, designed to build on last year’s peace accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan, marks high-level US attention to the region’s security and economic connectivity.
While Georgia is not on Vance’s official itinerary, the crisis in Iran, including disruption of trade and logistics routes across the broader region, has raised concerns in Tbilisi about stability and the indirect effects of geopolitical tensions on Georgian economic and diplomatic calculations.
Analysts worry that Iran’s internal turmoil and US pressure could heighten ethnic and security tensions across neighboring states. Iran’s instability is seen as a risk factor for ethnic Azeri populations and broader regional power competition involving Russia, Turkey and Western actors across the South Caucasus.
As both Tehran and Washington signal readiness to escalate or, alternatively, pursue negotiation, the coming weeks could prove decisive not only for Iran’s internal future but for the broader geopolitical balance, reaching into the Caucasus and beyond.
By Team GT
