This week, Russia’s ground campaign and winter air offensive followed a familiar pattern: steady pressure along multiple front-line sectors combined with heavy strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, timed to maximize disruption during sub-zero temperatures. While neither side reported major breakthroughs, the fighting included confirmed and claimed village-level changes along the front, sharp contrasts between better-equipped and weaker Ukrainian sectors, and renewed attacks on power generation and distribution nodes that left parts of Ukraine’s largest cities intermittently dark and cold.
Frontline Developments in the Northeast
In the northeast, around Kupiansk, Ukrainian commanders and analysts reported a notable stabilization compared with the precarious situation of previous months. The improvement is credited to the deployment of better-equipped, higher-readiness units and drone-heavy formations, which have helped blunt Russian pushes and reclaim lost positions around the city. Kyiv’s strategy here highlights an ongoing trade-off: concentrating scarce, trained manpower on a critical node can strengthen one sector while leaving others thinner and more vulnerable.
This balancing act has become a recurring theme in Ukraine’s defense strategy. While the northeastern sector has seen some relief, the southern front, particularly around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, has borne the cost. Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reported that Russian forces occupied the village of Krasnohirske and continued to advance in and around Huliaipole and nearby settlements.
These moves reflect ongoing pressure on a sector where territorial defense units face limitations in manpower, equipment, and endurance. Here, the strategic imbalance observed in the northeast appears in reverse: as stronger formations are dispatched to critical hotspots elsewhere, the southern line faces persistent probing and gradual Russian gains.
Russia also claimed additional village captures, though independent verification remains difficult in near real-time. On January 16, the Russian defense ministry reported that its forces had taken Zakitne in Donetsk region and Olenokostiantynivka in Zaporizhzhia region. While Reuters noted it could not independently verify these claims, even localized advances matter. Village-level changes can improve firing positions, widen tactical footholds, and slowly reshape a front that stretches roughly a thousand kilometers from north to south.
Energy Infrastructure Under Siege
The most consequential developments this week were in Ukraine’s energy sector. On the night of January 18–19, Ukraine reported a large drone barrage targeting energy facilities, leaving widespread power outages across several regions during freezing conditions. The Ukrainian air force said 145 drones were launched, and air defenses intercepted 126. Nevertheless, Kyiv reported outages in Sumy, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions. In Odesa, authorities reported damage to both energy and gas infrastructure and said one person was injured. DTEK, the country’s largest private energy firm, said one of its facilities in Odesa was “substantially” damaged, leaving 30,800 households without power.
The strikes were followed by an even more consequential wave on January 19–20, which impacted both power generation and distribution. Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s grid operator, reported severe emergency limitations and described Kyiv and several regions—including Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Odesa, and Poltava—as among the most difficult areas as repair crews worked to restore service. Reuters reported that the attacks cut power to more than one million households in the Kyiv area, leaving thousands of apartment buildings without heat. Substations critical to nuclear safety were also damaged or disrupted, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Drone and missile strikes killed four people during this wave—three in Zaporizhzhia and one in the Kyiv region.
The nuclear-safety dimension added a heightened political and strategic significance. Several substations crucial for nuclear safety were affected, and off-site power to the Chornobyl site was temporarily lost before being restored. Ukraine relies heavily on nuclear generation for electricity, and strikes on the grid connecting plants to consumers can create cascading risks, even if reactors themselves are not directly targeted. Ukraine accused Moscow of deliberately targeting these substations and using the threat of a nuclear-linked incident as coercion, while Russia claimed it struck military-industrial, energy, and transport infrastructure to support its operations.
Humanitarian Toll
The human cost of these energy attacks extended beyond temporary blackouts. Heating failures left residents exposed to freezing temperatures in winter apartments. By January 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that nearly 60% of Kyiv remained without electricity and around 4,000 buildings still lacked heat. Kharkiv region officials reported hundreds of thousands of residents without power, while further damage in Odesa added to the strain. These disruptions also degraded cellular networks and other basic services, compounding the psychological and logistical pressures of blackouts and cold on civilians.
Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive Operations
Ukraine continued to expand its drone operations, striking Russian-occupied areas and targets across the border, including energy-related infrastructure. On January 18, a Ukrainian drone strike caused a major outage in Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia region, affecting more than 200,000 people across nearly 400 settlements. Other strikes hit Russian territory: in Belgorod region, one person was killed and another wounded in Nechaevka; in Beslan, North Ossetia, two children and one adult were injured when a strike hit a residential building; and in Ryazan, a high-rise was hit, injuring two people.
Casualties Overview
The week’s casualty reporting was dominated by the aerial campaigns. Reuters reported that a mass Russian drone attack overnight into January 18 killed two people and wounded dozens. Subsequent strikes on January 19–20 killed four people—three in Zaporizhzhia and one in Kyiv region. Ukrainian counterstrikes caused injuries and fatalities in Russian territory as noted above. These numbers reflect publicly confirmed incidents and do not capture total military casualties, which neither side discloses comprehensively.
Diplomatic Developments
Diplomacy moved in parallel with the intensifying strike campaign, though battlefield realities and negotiating positions remained far apart. US special envoy Steve Witkoff said he and Jared Kushner would travel to Moscow to meet President Putin for talks related to ending the war. Zelensky emphasized that Washington could exert more pressure on Moscow, calling for stronger sanctions, including measures aimed at curbing ongoing Russian missile production.
International Support for Ukraine
International assistance this week focused heavily on financial and military support. The European Commission proposed a multi-year support package totaling €90 billion, including €30 billion in general budget support and €60 billion earmarked for military procurement, largely with European suppliers. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged allied military chiefs to press their governments to provide additional air defense systems, reflecting Ukraine’s urgent need to blunt missile and drone attacks that are hitting both cities and the energy nodes that keep them warm.
Ukraine’s Modernization Drive
Ukraine also signaled a push to translate battlefield experience into long-term operational advantage. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a data-driven overhaul of the military, including systems to improve drone and artillery decision-making, and closer cooperation with allies on AI tools for drone interception. While these reforms cannot prevent missiles already in the air, they reflect Ukraine’s broader strategy for 2026: to offset Russia’s scale with smarter targeting, faster response cycles, and more efficient use of personnel and ammunition.
Compiled by Ana Dumbadze
