When the European Commission released its latest economic projections this November, few expected Georgia — a small country tucked between the Black Sea and the Caucasus Mountains — to steal the spotlight. Yet it did. The new forecast lifted Georgia’s expected 2025 growth to 7.3 percent, an upgrade of 1.3 points from spring and the strongest projection among all EU candidate countries.
For many in Tbilisi, the announcement felt like a moment of vindication. The country has weathered political tension, regional instability, and global uncertainty, yet the numbers tell a story of momentum. In 2024, Georgia’s economy grew by 9.4 percent, fueled by surging consumption and a labor market that, according to the European Commission, continued to expand faster than almost anyone expected.
One EU economist, speaking during the Spring 2025 forecast presentation, noted that Georgia had shown “exceptional resilience in a challenging environment,” a line that quickly circulated through Georgian media.
Georgia isn’t rising in isolation. The Commission’s report evaluated all candidate countries, and while Albania is set to grow by 3.6 percent and Türkiye by 3.4 percent, none come close to Georgia’s projected acceleration. Serbia’s outlook was cut to 2.2 percent. Ukraine and Moldova are expected to grow by just 1.6 percent each. Against this backdrop, Georgia stands out — not only for speed but for the direction of its revision.
Across the EU, the picture looks far more uneven. For 2025, the Commission now projects 1.4 percent growth across the Union, slightly higher than earlier estimates but still modest. Ireland is the surprise giant of the group: its growth forecast was revised up to a staggering 10.7 percent, driven largely by the country’s famously volatile multinational-dominated sectors. Malta and Cyprus follow at 4.0 and 3.4 percent, while Europe’s largest economies trail behind — Germany at just 0.2 percent, Italy at 0.4 percent, and France at 0.7.
Georgia’s rise has also caught the attention of international institutions. The IMF, after concluding its 2025 Article IV mission, noted the country’s “remarkable resilience,” praising its strong investment climate and domestic demand. Its own forecast — 7.2 percent growth — aligns closely with the Commission’s. Still, the IMF didn’t gloss over challenges: high unemployment, persistent income inequality, a concentrated banking sector, and pressure on foreign-exchange reserves all remain risks.
And then there is politics — a shadow never far from economic news in Georgia. The European Commission’s 2025 Enlargement Report, released in November, sharply criticized Georgia’s democratic backsliding and said accession talks remain effectively frozen. The Georgian Foreign Ministry pushed back, calling the assessment biased and unfair. For many Georgians, this clash made the economic praise bittersweet: growth was soaring, but EU integration — the country’s long-declared strategic goal — felt more distant.
Still, the mood within Georgia’s business community is one of guarded optimism. As one Tbilisi tech entrepreneur put it after the forecast was published, “If the politics could calm down even a little, this country could fly.”
For now, Georgia is doing just that — at least economically. Whether this upward curve becomes a bridge toward Europe, or a story of potential held back by politics, remains to be written.
By Team GT
