After the inauguration of the US president, the international system experienced a significant shock. Trump’s unexpected decisions set the stage for a broader reassessment of global relations. Historically, US presidents tend to make bolder and more pragmatic decisions in their second terms. However, actions such as the suspension of USAID, tensions with Canada and Mexico over the trade issues, the weakening of support for Ukraine, and overtures toward Russia raise serious questions about the consistency and strategic direction of Trump’s foreign policy.
While China and Iran remain key foreign policy challenges, Russia also warrants significant attention. The administration has yet to articulate a definitive strategy toward Moscow, and Trump’s recent statements on Russia have generated uncertainty, particularly in Europe and Ukraine. Speculation about a potential reset in US-Russia relations persists, though concrete scenarios remain difficult to predict at this early stage. The trajectory of US policy toward Russia will likely be shaped by developments in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump has signaled his willingness to impose new sanctions and tariffs on Russia if negotiations proceed unfavorably, yet contradictory remarks regarding the potential easing of sanctions and deepening US-Russia economic relations have only added to the ambiguity. Meanwhile, the future of US-European security and defense cooperation remains uncertain. In response, the European Union, along with the UK has intensified efforts to enhance its security capabilities, with plans to substantially increase spending on defense, security, and military production in the coming years, along with the possibility to establish new security mechanisms.
Amid this geopolitical uncertainty, it is critical for Georgia to understand how the new U.S. administration perceives the Black Sea region. Although no direct statements have been made regarding Georgia or the Black Sea Region, the administration’s broader foreign policy priorities allow for some discussions.
The Black Sea: A Crossroads of Geopolitical Competition
In the current unstable international order, the Black Sea region has become a focal point of geopolitical rivalry. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscored the strategic importance of this region, drawing in key global players such as Russia, China, Iran, Europe, and the United States.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted the regional balance of power, necessitating the establishment of a new security framework that ensures peace, stability, and economic resilience. The active engagement of Europe and the United States is essential in this process.
Russia’s overarching objective is to transform the Black Sea into a zone of exclusive influence, effectively making it a “Russian lake.” This strategy aligns with Moscow’s broader ambition of reestablishing a Soviet-era sphere of control. Additionally, Russia seeks dominance over the Middle Corridor, a vital trade and energy route between Europe and Asia. To achieve these goals, the Kremlin employs a mix of military expansion, hybrid warfare tactics, and economic pressure. The deepening Russia-Iran alliance further complicates regional dynamics, with Moscow seeking to leverage this partnership to strengthen its foothold in the Caucasus and marginalize Western influence.
China, meanwhile, is steadily expanding its economic presence in the Black Sea region through strategic investments, such as its involvement in Georgia’s Anaklia deep-sea port. These investments support Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and serve to enhance China’s geopolitical influence over the Middle Corridor. The recent Georgia-China Strategic Partnership Agreement and Chinese involvement in critical infrastructure projects underscore Beijing’s long-term interests in the region.
Turkey, viewing itself as a regional power, pursues a strategy of maintaining a delicate balance between major players. While Ankara seeks to counter Russian influence, it also avoids pushing Moscow toward total collapse. At the same time, Turkey strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and reflects readiness to assist Ukraine with the various means.
Europe, for its part, is working to diversify its energy supply chains and reduce dependence on Russian resources, making the Black Sea an increasingly critical component of European energy and trade security.
US Perspectives on Russia, China, and Iran
The Trump administration views China’s economic expansion as a primary national security challenge. A trade dispute between Washington and Beijing has already led to the imposition of tariffs, and Secretary of State Rubio has explicitly identified China as the greatest threat to US national security. His early diplomatic engagements, particularly with the QUAD nations, signal a clear commitment to countering Chinese influence. Simultaneously, the administration is working to curb China’s role in the Panama Canal and remains firmly opposed to BRICS, as Trump has repeatedly emphasized.
On Iran, Trump has reinstated the maximum pressure campaign through executive orders and reaffirmed a strong US-Israel partnership aimed at deterring Tehran’s regional ambitions. However, US tries to negotiate with Iran on nuclear issues with the mediation of Russia.
Regarding Ukraine, Washington has publicly committed to ending the war in a way that prevents future conflicts. However, the specifics of potential concessions from both Kyiv and Moscow remain uncertain. Ukraine continues to demand robust security guarantees, while the U.S. has yet to propose a framework that meets the expectations of all parties. Key questions remain: How can the US provide Ukraine with credible security guarantees? Will Washington continue military support for Ukraine if a settlement is reached? What territory will Ukraine be able to reclaim? In addition, will Europe deploy peacekeepers to help maintain lasting peace?
The US Strategy for Engagement in the Black Sea Region
To counterbalance the growing alliance between Russia, China, and Iran, the United States must adopt a comprehensive strategy that integrates military deterrence, economic investment, and diplomatic engagement. If the war in Ukraine continues, the Black Sea’s strategic significance for Washington will only grow.
One essential measure for US engagement is increasing the rotational presence of NATO forces in Black Sea member states. Conducting regular military exercises and enhancing naval and aerial patrols would help reinforce freedom of navigation while counteracting Russia’s militarization efforts in the region. In addition, boosting the military capacity of non-NATO Black Sea states, such as Georgia and Moldova, would serve as a deterrent to adversarial influence and contribute to regional stability.
Another key aspect of this strategy involves developing new security alliances. Establishing a Black Sea security initiative modeled according to the Baltic Security Initiative can be effective, alongside the activation of existing platforms such as the Bucharest Nine and the Three Seas Initiative, could significantly enhance regional cooperation and coordination among allies.
Beyond military and security considerations, economic measures are also crucial. Washington should work to counter China’s growing economic influence by offering alternatives to Chinese investments in critical infrastructure projects. This could be achieved through financing provided by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), in collaboration with European partners, ensuring that Black Sea nations are not overly dependent on Chinese or Russian economic initiatives.
Equally important is supporting democratization efforts in the region. Strengthening democratic institutions will be vital for ensuring political stability and resilience against external interference, particularly Kremlin-backed disinformation campaigns. By reinforcing democratic governance, the United States can help Black Sea nations build stronger, more independent institutions that are resistant to authoritarian influence and external destabilization efforts.
Georgia’s Strategic Role in Regional Security
Georgia has a pivotal role in the geopolitical contest for influence in the Black Sea. Russia, China, and Iran each have vested interests in Georgia, and their success in consolidating influence would significantly weaken the West’s regional presence.
To counteract these pressures, Georgia must first address its internal political challenges and reestablish democratic governance. US and European engagement will be critical in facilitating this process. Renewing Georgia’s strategic partnership with the United States and restoring its international credibility will be key to securing long-term security guarantees.
While NATO membership remains Georgia’s ultimate security goal, the current geopolitical landscape necessitates interim security measures to ensure the country’s stability and resilience. One potential option is the establishment of bilateral security guarantees, with the United States, EU states or UK providing security assurances to Georgia in a manner similar to the AUKUS framework. Such an arrangement would bolster Georgia’s defense capabilities and strengthen its strategic partnership with the West.
In addition to military assurances, increased Western investments in Georgia’s economy are essential. Expanding U.S. and EU engagement in Georgia’s energy and infrastructure sectors would not only contribute to the country’s economic development but also serve as a counterbalance to growing Chinese and Russian economic influence. By reinforcing both security and economic ties, Georgia can enhance its strategic position while continuing its path toward full Euro-Atlantic integration.
Additionally, Georgia must effectively communicate its strategic value to the Trump administration. If Washington perceives Georgia as solely a European issue, it may defer responsibility to the EU, which lacks the necessary mechanisms to address Georgia’s security challenges adequately.
Conclusion
The Black Sea region has emerged as a battleground for global powers, with the Trump administration facing the challenge of countering Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence. The extent of U.S. engagement in the region will depend on whether Washington adopts a truly global containment strategy or focuses solely on select theaters of competition.
For the West, allowing Russia, China, and Iran to expand their foothold in the Black Sea would constitute a significant geopolitical setback. Ensuring Georgia’s security and stability is integral to maintaining Western influence and upholding a rules-based order in the region. Strengthening democratic institutions and fostering deeper US-Georgia cooperation will be key in achieving these objectives.
By Nikoloz Khatiashvili – Senior Research Fellow, GEOCASE
